2018-2028 the new Golden decade

Or should i say Silver decade?

I started investing with bigger money in 2009, meeting my future wife and her spare money which had to be invested, around 30K€. My focus was 100% on oil services and exploration.

I did fairly well, as co’s like Transocean doubled. Searching for the next big thing, I found the Precious metals Sector and since then I have been my focus for 100%

Precious Metals are about sentiment and cycles, money expansion. Too much guys focus on technicals. And no, Gold also has no particular correlation with inflation. It preserves wealth during deflation and inflation.

I was young, had 45K€ and want to move up in life. It was around Fall 2009 when I went all in on miner options for the very first time. At that time, I only traded GDX and GDXJ. I did well 2 intermediate cycles and 8 months after I was playing with 3 times the money.

Back then my only subscription was Gary Savage (i now hold around 20 both as indicator and contra indicator). There was a lot less manipulation, the market moved in crystal clear cycles. It was clear the next big move was to come in Silver, and I leveraged up once again in SLV and even in AGQ calls. My exit was 1 day before the top. My new account balance was 1 million €, almost to the tick.

I lost 25% immediately by overtrading the week after the top came.

My best trade was in the fall of 2012. Being long after the silver crash was a neutral trade, but then the intermediate cycle broke and I went long ZSL calls. That’s calls on a leveraged 2x short silver ETF. It was risky so I invested just a small amount, but made 2000% on the volatility boost. My account now reached 2M and I decided to derisk and invest in real estate.

I have always kept an eye on precious metals, but they kept making lower intermediate lows so i stayed away.

August 2018 everything changed when Gold managed to make a second higher intermediate low after a rude bear market. Bull markets tend to be 10+ years in metals, so I knew it was time for a comeback. I was quietly wetting my feet, but it was only spring 2019 when I took a 7 digit option bet, long. Mostly GDXJ, and some individual Silver majors.

This trade propelled me to next tier, as the 1M I invested became 5.6 (after reaching 8.3 with each day7 digit swings). I cashed out early, as David Brady’s tweets got me nervous and because I never had seen that much money in my life.

The two cycles after everyone probably remembers as we started positioning in juniors. My thesis is this endgame wil be probably extremely volatile, with lots of fakeouts typical for a Gold bull market.  I also noticed the amount of surpression was much bigger as in the 2001-2011 bull, probably to mask government money creation intervention.

Only being leveraged without time value would become the focus, as i smelled leverage eventually kills everyone in the biggest of bull markets, and i experienced this volatility back in 2011 and 2012 both up and down.

Compared with the seventies type of movements and you quickly understand leverage is impossible. Also, there are good chances $SLV blows up in this bull market.

The cycle from oct 2019 right to before the Covid crash, I made small money and I exited right before the Covid crash all leveraged call positions. Right at the bottom we loaded up on SLV calls, but I sold out early. Nevertheless we kept a meaningful call position of approx. 7 digits and sold out July 2020, when Silver made it’s first big move. Most of the Gold watchers had $18 Silver targets.

I had a $27 target and rode 80% of the cycle bottom to top. Silver topped at $30 and has since been consolidating. The same cycle, our junior miner portfolio - the meat of the investment strategy, quadrupled over the course of 4 months. My investment account reached a comfortable 8 digits now.

Since then, we are in a wave 2 consolidation for Silver. Waves 2 and 4 are hard, and extremely difficult to time. Faekouts are the rule. Lots of time is normal, to wearout all the newcomers. I had some serious dips november 2020, march 2021 and the deepest july 2021: it was nad has been very hard, to say the least. This type of consolidation duration surprised me a lot: we haven’t seen this since the seventies bull.

You see technical guys calling for a bear market: i don’t agree.

This is just a wearout ongoing consolidation within a bigger new bull market. It’s all about the dominant trend. Gold is one of the few assets besides commodities which is in a bull market. Focus on fundamental macro, by taking subs on the best macro visionaries.

I believe my strategy to focus on collecting undervalued Gold and Silver assets, is the way to play this decade long new bull market. You get the leverage on lifetime options. You can sit out volatility without being wiped out. Inside my network, I see other sophisticated investors doing the same. They have been collecting cheap junior mining asset shares for years now. They don’t care about price action. They care about management, the asset and how they manage the treasury in meantime during these market conditions.  

So no more leverage, no more margin. Volatility is increasing in all markets, and will continue to do so.

You will not make anything in the junior mining sector without being in early and having all this due diligence done. Over the last two years I reinvested in people, analysts to build a dedicated silver and gold portfolio for this bull market. The best way is to steal a name, and do the due diligence yourself. Build the conviction. Understand the market, the market rules, everything.

In the meantime, ignore the noise. This world has become all about short term fast gains. Trolls trying to sell you crap. Our time for gains will come, difference is the gains will be sustainable and for a very long time, based on fundamentals.

i see the junior market doing a 100x from here. Some guys will laugh and call this sensation, i think it’s a modest target based on approx $8000 gold which is the mid cycle number i have in mind and based on money creation.

Anyone who misses this Golden Silver opportunity has only but himself to blame.

The entries we see now is how fortunes are made.